The course introduces probability theory, including probability spaces, random variables, conditional probability and independence, limit theorems, and Markov chains, with an introduction to Brownian motion. The course will provide students with a solid theoretical foundation for probability theory, as well as describing some practical applications of probability in information theory and option pricing. 

The course will provide a sound foundation to progress to MATH3015 (Stochastic Analysis with Financial Applications), as well as other honours and post-graduate courses emphasizing the theory of mathematical finance and stochastic analysis.

Note: This is an HPC. 

Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:

1. Understand and use fundamental concepts of probability theory
2. Demonstrate accurate and efficient use of probability theory techniques, including limiting processes
3. Solve problems using probabilistic methods and ideas
4. Demonstrate capacity for mathematical reasoning through analyzing, proving and explaining concepts from probability theory

Additional Course Costs

None. Obtaining the textbook is completely optional, as it is available online via the ANU library.

Recommended Resources

Textbook:

Stochastics, 2nd revised and extended edition, by Hans-Otto Georgii, de Gruyter, 2013. ISBN 978-3-11-029254-1. (available for free online via the ANU Library)

Recommended student system requirements 

ANU courses commonly use a number of online resources and activities including:

• video material, similar to YouTube, for lectures and other instruction
• two-way video conferencing for interactive learning
• email and other messaging tools for communication
• interactive web apps for formative and collaborative activities
• print and photo/scan for handwritten work
• home-based assessment.

To fully participate in ANU learning, students need:

• A computer or laptop. Mobile devices may work well but in some situations a computer/laptop may be more appropriate.
• Webcam
• Speakers and a microphone (e.g. headset)
• Reliable, stable internet connection. Broadband recommended. If using a mobile network or wi-fi then check performance is adequate.
• Suitable location with minimal interruptions and adequate privacy for classes and assessments.
• Printing, and photo/scanning equipment

For more information please see https://www.anu.edu.au/students/systems/recommended-student-system-requirements

Staff Feedback

Students will be given feedback in the following forms in this course:

• written comments
• verbal comments
• feedback to whole class, groups, individuals, focus group etc

Student Feedback

ANU is committed to the demonstration of educational excellence and regularly seeks feedback from students. Students are encouraged to offer feedback directly to their Course Convener or through their College and Course representatives (if applicable). Feedback can also be provided to Course Conveners and teachers via the Student Experience of Learning & Teaching (SELT) feedback program. SELT surveys are confidential and also provide the Colleges and ANU Executive with opportunities to recognise excellent teaching, and opportunities for improvement.

Class Schedule

Week/Session	Summary of Activities	Assessment
1	Foundations of probability theory	Schedule is subject to change
2	Foundations of probability theory, standard probability distributions
3	Standard probability distributions, conditional probability and independence
4	Conditional probability and independence
5	Conditional probability and independence, expectation and variance
6	Expectation and variance
7	Expectation and variance, limit theorems
8	Limit theorems
9	Limit theorems
10	Limit theorems, Markov chains
11	Markov chains
12	Markov chains, Brownian motion

Tutorial Registration

Students are required to enrol in one of the available weekly workshop groups. Remote participation options will be provided only for participants with unavoidable travel restrictions/visa delays. However not all times will be available for both remote and in-person attendance. Please see MyTimetable and the course Wattle page for more information.

Assessment Summary

Assessment task	Value	Due Date	Return of assessment	Learning Outcomes
Homework assignments	60 %	*	*	1,2,3,4
End-of-semester exam	40 %	01/06/2023	29/06/2023	1,2,3,4

* If the Due Date and Return of Assessment date are blank, see the Assessment Tab for specific Assessment Task details

Policies

ANU has educational policies, procedures and guidelines , which are designed to ensure that staff and students are aware of the University’s academic standards, and implement them. Students are expected to have read the Academic Integrity Rule before the commencement of their course. Other key policies and guidelines include:

• Academic Integrity Policy and Procedure
• Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure
• Special Assessment Consideration Guideline and General Information 
• Student Surveys and Evaluations
• Deferred Examinations
• Student Complaint Resolution Policy and Procedure
• Code of practice for teaching and learning

Assessment Requirements

The ANU is using Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the Academic Skills website. In rare cases where online submission using Turnitin software is not technically possible; or where not using Turnitin software has been justified by the Course Convener and approved by the Associate Dean (Education) on the basis of the teaching model being employed; students shall submit assessment online via ‘Wattle’ outside of Turnitin, or failing that in hard copy, or through a combination of submission methods as approved by the Associate Dean (Education). The submission method is detailed below.

Moderation of Assessment

Marks that are allocated during Semester are to be considered provisional until formalised by the College examiners meeting at the end of each Semester. If appropriate, some moderation of marks might be applied prior to final results being released.

Participation

In Semester 1 2023, participation in workshops will be on campus with remote adjustments only for participants with unavoidable travel restrictions/visa delays.

Examination(s)

This course includes a final examination.. The details and mode of delivery for the exam will be communicated through the course Wattle site.

 

Please note that, where a date range is used in the Assessment Summary in relation to exams, the due date and return date for mid-semester exams indicate the approximate timeframe in which the exam will be held; the due and return date for end of semester exams indicate the approximate timeframe in which the exam will be held and the date official end of Semester results are released on ISIS. Students should consult the course Wattle site and the ANU final examination timetable to confirm the date, time and mode of the exam.

Assessment Task 1

Homework assignments

5 homework assignments, each worth 12%. Deadlines for assignments will be communicated at least two weeks before the deadline.

There are 5 assignments due over the semester. It is intended that the marked assignments will be returned within 7 days after submission. Further details can be found on the course Wattle site.

Assessment Task 2

End-of-semester exam

The date range in the Assessment Summary indicates the start of the end of semester exam period and the date official end of semester results are released on ISIS. Please check the ANU final Examination Timetable http://www.anu.edu.au/students/program-administration/assessments-exams/examination-timetable to confirm the date, time and mode of the exam. Final Exam will be online or in-person, TBC. Students will need to get a mark of at least 40% on the exam to pass the course.

Academic Integrity

Academic integrity is a core part of the ANU culture as a community of scholars. The University’s students are an integral part of that community. The academic integrity principle commits all students to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support, academic integrity, and to uphold this commitment by behaving honestly, responsibly and ethically, and with respect and fairness, in scholarly practice.

The University expects all staff and students to be familiar with the academic integrity principle, the Academic Integrity Rule 2021, the Policy: Student Academic Integrity and Procedure: Student Academic Integrity, and to uphold high standards of academic integrity to ensure the quality and value of our qualifications.

The Academic Integrity Rule 2021 is a legal document that the University uses to promote academic integrity, and manage breaches of the academic integrity principle. The Policy and Procedure support the Rule by outlining overarching principles, responsibilities and processes. The Academic Integrity Rule 2021 commences on 1 December 2021 and applies to courses commencing on or after that date, as well as to research conduct occurring on or after that date. Prior to this, the Academic Misconduct Rule 2015 applies.

 

The University commits to assisting all students to understand how to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support academic integrity. All coursework students must complete the online Academic Integrity Module (Epigeum), and Higher Degree Research (HDR) students are required to complete research integrity training. The Academic Integrity website provides information about services available to assist students with their assignments, examinations and other learning activities, as well as understanding and upholding academic integrity.

Online Submission

You will be required to agree to a declaration as part of the submission of your assignments, that will record your understanding of ANU academic integrity principles. Assignment submission will be via PDF upload to a Wattle Assignment Tool. Please keep a copy of the assignment for your records. MATH3029 does not use Turnitin, having been granted an exemption.

Hardcopy Submission

For some forms of assessment (hand written assignments, art works, laboratory notes, etc.) hard copy submission is appropriate when approved by the Associate Dean (Education). Hard copy submissions must utilise the Assignment Cover Sheet. Please keep a copy of tasks completed for your records.

Late Submission

Late submission of assessment tasks without an extension are penalised at the rate of 5% of the possible marks available per working day or part thereof. Late submission of assessment tasks is not accepted after 10 working days after the due date, or on or after the date specified in the course outline for the return of the assessment item. Late submission is not accepted for take-home examinations.

Referencing Requirements

The Academic Skills website has information to assist you with your writing and assessments. The website includes information about Academic Integrity including referencing requirements for different disciplines. There is also information on Plagiarism and different ways to use source material.

Returning Assignments

It is intended that the marked assignments will be returned within 7 days after submission, at which point late submissions will no longer be accepted.

Extensions and Penalties

Extensions and late submission of assessment pieces are covered by the Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure. Extensions may be granted for assessment pieces that are not examinations or take-home examinations. If you need an extension, you must request an extension in writing on or before the due date. If you have documented and appropriate medical evidence that demonstrates you were not able to request an extension on or before the due date, you may be able to request it after the due date.

Privacy Notice

The ANU has made a number of third party, online, databases available for students to use. Use of each online database is conditional on student end users first agreeing to the database licensor’s terms of service and/or privacy policy. Students should read these carefully. In some cases student end users will be required to register an account with the database licensor and submit personal information, including their: first name; last name; ANU email address; and other information.
In cases where student end users are asked to submit ‘content’ to a database, such as an assignment or short answers, the database licensor may only use the student’s ‘content’ in accordance with the terms of service – including any (copyright) licence the student grants to the database licensor. Any personal information or content a student submits may be stored by the licensor, potentially offshore, and will be used to process the database service in accordance with the licensors terms of service and/or privacy policy.
If any student chooses not to agree to the database licensor’s terms of service or privacy policy, the student will not be able to access and use the database. In these circumstances students should contact their lecturer to enquire about alternative arrangements that are available.

Distribution of grades policy

Academic Quality Assurance Committee monitors the performance of students, including attrition, further study and employment rates and grade distribution, and College reports on quality assurance processes for assessment activities, including alignment with national and international disciplinary and interdisciplinary standards, as well as qualification type learning outcomes.

Since first semester 1994, ANU uses a grading scale for all courses. This grading scale is used by all academic areas of the University.

Support for students

The University offers students support through several different services. You may contact the services listed below directly or seek advice from your Course Convener, Student Administrators, or your College and Course representatives (if applicable).

• ANU Health, safety & wellbeing for medical services, counselling, mental health and spiritual support
• ANU Access and inclusion for students with a disability or ongoing or chronic illness
• ANU Dean of Students for confidential, impartial advice and help to resolve problems between students and the academic or administrative areas of the University
• ANU Academic Skills and Learning Centre supports you make your own decisions about how you learn and manage your workload.
• ANU Counselling Centre promotes, supports and enhances mental health and wellbeing within the University student community.
• ANUSA supports and represents undergraduate and ANU College students
• PARSA supports and represents postgraduate and research students