This course examines what it means to be 'rational' in negotiating the world and conducting one's life. At issue is the quality of one’s beliefs, desires and choices about how to act, particularly in the face of uncertainty, and in concert with others.

Part I is a critical examination of the standard theory of individual rationality - expected utility theory – that unites and explicates the aforementioned key mental attitudes. This theory stems from the classic work of philosophers/social scientists such as Ramsey, de Finetti and Savage. Contemporary challenges to the standard theory come from diverse directions, with some arguing that the theory is too little constrained and even vacuous, and others arguing that it is too rigid, either in its prescriptions for representing and handling uncertainty or else by virtue of being in conflict with some prominent ethical accounts of right action. The course considers these challenges to the standard theory and the responses/developments they have inspired.

Part II turns to rationality in a social context. One question is how collective judgments should depend on the judgments of the individual members. This question is pursued in the context of democratic theory, where the focus is on the procedure by which a group should decide on actions or attitudes to jointly adopt. This question is also pursued in the context of social welfare or choice theory, where the focus is on determining the collective preference ranking over social states that best represents, or is the most appropriate aggregate of, the respective individual preference rankings. A rather different sort of question is what an individual should do when the consequences of their choice depend on what others do, and vice versa. This is the province of game theory. Standard solution concepts for games are introduced, but the focus is on the limits of these solutions—when collective-action problems arise. Bargaining theory is introduced as a way of negotiating these collective-action problems (amongst other sorts of problems); it may be seen as an intermediary between game theory and social welfare or choice theory.

Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:

1. understand and describe key philosophical issues and associated theory pertaining to rational choice and inference, both for individuals and groups;
2. critically evaluate both formal and discursive material relevant to rational (individual, game and social) choice theory;
3. competently articulate in written form arguments for and against contrasting positions within rational choice theory and the real-world implications of these positions; and
4. competently engage in reasoned oral debate about the relative merits and implications of theoretical positions within rational choice theory.

Research-Led Teaching

This course presents the foundations of the theory of rationality, with a focus on rational belief formation (studied through the lens of probability) and rational decision-making (studied through the lens of expected utility theory). In addition to foundations, the course will investigate 'hot topics' of contemporary research, including by the convenor, Prof. Brian Hedden.

Field Trips

N/A

Additional Course Costs

N/A

Examination Material or equipment

N/A

Required Resources

Primary reading: Michael Resnik, Choices: An Introduction to Decision Theory, University of Minnesota Press. 1987.

Students should purchase the physical book or procure an electronic copy.

Electronic copy is available through the ANU library website.

Additional readings will be provided on the course Wattle page.

Staff Feedback

Students will be given feedback in the following forms in this course:

• written comments
• verbal comments
• feedback to whole class, groups, individuals, focus group etc

Student Feedback

ANU is committed to the demonstration of educational excellence and regularly seeks feedback from students. Students are encouraged to offer feedback directly to their Course Convener or through their College and Course representatives (if applicable). Feedback can also be provided to Course Conveners and teachers via the Student Experience of Learning & Teaching (SELT) feedback program. SELT surveys are confidential and also provide the Colleges and ANU Executive with opportunities to recognise excellent teaching, and opportunities for improvement.

Other Information

The information published in this Class Summary may be subject to change, any changes in assessments or other course details will be communicated via Wattle and during the first week of the Semester. Any questions or concerns should be raised with the course convenor/lecturer as soon as possible.

Class Schedule

Week/Session	Summary of Activities	Assessment
1	Introduction to Probability and Decision Theory	Lecture from Brian Hedden. In person 2hr, with recording available on Echo360
2	Decisions under Ignorance
3	Probability Theory and Decisions under Risk
4	Conditionalization
5	Significance Testing: Frequentism vs. Bayesianism
6	Utility Theory
7	Paradoxes of Decision Theory: Allais, St. Petersburg, and Pasadena
8	Paradoxes of Decision Theory: The Newcomb Problem
9	Game Theory
10	Game Theory
11	Social Choice Theory
12	Social Choice Theory

Tutorial Registration

Registration required. ANU utilises MyTimetable to enable students to view the timetable for their enrolled courses, browse, then self-allocate to small teaching activities / tutorials so they can better plan their time. Find out more on the Timetable webpage https://www.anu.edu.au/students/program-administration/timetabling.

Assessment Summary

Assessment task	Value	Due Date	Learning Outcomes
tutorial participation	5 %	*	1, 3
Take-home Quiz	15 %	*	1
Essay	35 %	12/05/2025	1, 2
1.5 Hour final exam	45 %	*	1, 2

* If the Due Date and Return of Assessment date are blank, see the Assessment Tab for specific Assessment Task details

Policies

ANU has educational policies, procedures and guidelines , which are designed to ensure that staff and students are aware of the University’s academic standards, and implement them. Students are expected to have read the Academic Integrity Rule before the commencement of their course. Other key policies and guidelines include:

• Academic Integrity Policy and Procedure
• Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure
• Extenuating Circumstances Application
• Student Surveys and Evaluations
• Deferred Examinations
• Student Complaint Resolution Policy and Procedure
• Code of practice for teaching and learning

Assessment Requirements

The ANU is using Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the Academic Skills website. In rare cases where online submission using Turnitin software is not technically possible; or where not using Turnitin software has been justified by the Course Convener and approved by the Associate Dean (Education) on the basis of the teaching model being employed; students shall submit assessment online via ‘Wattle’ outside of Turnitin, or failing that in hard copy, or through a combination of submission methods as approved by the Associate Dean (Education). The submission method is detailed below.

Moderation of Assessment

Marks that are allocated during Semester are to be considered provisional until formalised by the College examiners meeting at the end of each Semester. If appropriate, some moderation of marks might be applied prior to final results being released.

Participation

As noted above, 5% of the final grade pertains to tutorial participation.

Examination(s)

1.5 hr formal final exam, consisting of 20 short-answer questions covering material from throughout the course.

Assessment Task 1

tutorial participation

Students will be graded on the quality of their participation in tutorials throughout semester; further details to be provided.

Assessment Task 2

Take-home Quiz

Students will complete a small take-home quiz during Week 6, covering material from Weeks 1-5.

Assessment Task 3

Essay

Students will be required to write a 2000-word essay on a question pertaining to the topics covered in the first 9 weeks of the course. Essay questions will be released at the beginning of Week 7.

Assessment Task 4

1.5 Hour final exam

There will be a 1.5 hour final exam, consisting of 20 short answer questions covering material from throughout the course. Date TBD but will take place during exam period.

Academic Integrity

Academic integrity is a core part of the ANU culture as a community of scholars. The University’s students are an integral part of that community. The academic integrity principle commits all students to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support, academic integrity, and to uphold this commitment by behaving honestly, responsibly and ethically, and with respect and fairness, in scholarly practice.

The University expects all staff and students to be familiar with the academic integrity principle, the Academic Integrity Rule 2021, the Policy: Student Academic Integrity and Procedure: Student Academic Integrity, and to uphold high standards of academic integrity to ensure the quality and value of our qualifications.

The Academic Integrity Rule 2021 is a legal document that the University uses to promote academic integrity, and manage breaches of the academic integrity principle. The Policy and Procedure support the Rule by outlining overarching principles, responsibilities and processes. The Academic Integrity Rule 2021 commences on 1 December 2021 and applies to courses commencing on or after that date, as well as to research conduct occurring on or after that date. Prior to this, the Academic Misconduct Rule 2015 applies.

 

The University commits to assisting all students to understand how to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support academic integrity. All coursework students must complete the online Academic Integrity Module (Epigeum), and Higher Degree Research (HDR) students are required to complete research integrity training. The Academic Integrity website provides information about services available to assist students with their assignments, examinations and other learning activities, as well as understanding and upholding academic integrity.

Online Submission

You will be required to electronically sign a declaration as part of the submission of your assignment. Please keep a copy of the assignment for your records. Unless an exemption has been approved by the Associate Dean (Education) submission must be through Turnitin.

Hardcopy Submission

For some forms of assessment (hand written assignments, art works, laboratory notes, etc.) hard copy submission is appropriate when approved by the Associate Dean (Education). Hard copy submissions must utilise the Assignment Cover Sheet. Please keep a copy of tasks completed for your records.

Late Submission

Individual assessment tasks may or may not allow for late submission. Policy regarding late submission is detailed below:

• Late submission not permitted. If submission of assessment tasks without an extension after the due date is not permitted, a mark of 0 will be awarded.
• Late submission permitted. Late submission of assessment tasks without an extension are penalised at the rate of 5% of the possible marks available per working day or part thereof. Late submission of assessment tasks is not accepted after 10 working days after the due date, or on or after the date specified in the course outline for the return of the assessment item. Late submission is not accepted for take-home examinations.

Referencing Requirements

The Academic Skills website has information to assist you with your writing and assessments. The website includes information about Academic Integrity including referencing requirements for different disciplines. There is also information on Plagiarism and different ways to use source material. Any use of artificial intelligence must be properly referenced. Failure to properly cite use of Generative AI will be considered a breach of academic integrity.

Returning Assignments

Feedback and marks for assignments will be returned via Wattle or else by email. Students will have opportunities to receive further feedback on assessment items in person by making an appointment with the tutor and/or lecturer in their office hours.

Extensions and Penalties

Extensions and late submission of assessment pieces are covered by the Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure. Extensions may be granted for assessment pieces that are not examinations or take-home examinations. If you need an extension, you must request an extension in writing on or before the due date. If you have documented and appropriate medical evidence that demonstrates you were not able to request an extension on or before the due date, you may be able to request it after the due date.

Resubmission of Assignments

There are no opportunities for resubmission of assignments.

Privacy Notice

The ANU has made a number of third party, online, databases available for students to use. Use of each online database is conditional on student end users first agreeing to the database licensor’s terms of service and/or privacy policy. Students should read these carefully. In some cases student end users will be required to register an account with the database licensor and submit personal information, including their: first name; last name; ANU email address; and other information.
In cases where student end users are asked to submit ‘content’ to a database, such as an assignment or short answers, the database licensor may only use the student’s ‘content’ in accordance with the terms of service – including any (copyright) licence the student grants to the database licensor. Any personal information or content a student submits may be stored by the licensor, potentially offshore, and will be used to process the database service in accordance with the licensors terms of service and/or privacy policy.
If any student chooses not to agree to the database licensor’s terms of service or privacy policy, the student will not be able to access and use the database. In these circumstances students should contact their lecturer to enquire about alternative arrangements that are available.

Distribution of grades policy

Academic Quality Assurance Committee monitors the performance of students, including attrition, further study and employment rates and grade distribution, and College reports on quality assurance processes for assessment activities, including alignment with national and international disciplinary and interdisciplinary standards, as well as qualification type learning outcomes.

Since first semester 1994, ANU uses a grading scale for all courses. This grading scale is used by all academic areas of the University.

Support for students

The University offers students support through several different services. You may contact the services listed below directly or seek advice from your Course Convener, Student Administrators, or your College and Course representatives (if applicable).

• ANU Health, safety & wellbeing for medical services, counselling, mental health and spiritual support
• ANU Accessibility for students with a disability or ongoing or chronic illness
• ANU Dean of Students for confidential, impartial advice and help to resolve problems between students and the academic or administrative areas of the University
• ANU Academic Skills supports you make your own decisions about how you learn and manage your workload.
• ANU Counselling promotes, supports and enhances mental health and wellbeing within the University student community.
• ANUSA supports and represents all ANU students